Bitcoin Halving Explained 2026 — Meaning, Timing, and Impact on Miners

Bitcoin Halving Explained — What it means, how it works, and why miners are affected

Every 210,000 blocks — approximately every four years — the reward Bitcoin miners receive for finding a block is cut in half. This event is called the Bitcoin Halving and is one of the most important mechanisms in the Bitcoin protocol. It determines how many new Bitcoins are created per day, how profitable mining is, and — if one follows the historical pattern thesis — how the Bitcoin price will develop in the 12-18 months thereafter.

The Halving Timeline: All past and upcoming events

Halving No.	Date	Block Reward before	Block Reward after	BTC/Day (after)
—	03.01.2009 (Genesis)	—	50 BTC	7,200
1	28.11.2012	50 BTC	25 BTC	3,600
2	09.07.2016	25 BTC	12.5 BTC	1,800
3	11.05.2020	12.5 BTC	6.25 BTC	900
4	20.04.2024	6.25 BTC	3.125 BTC	450
5 (next)	~2028	3.125 BTC	1.5625 BTC	225
6	~2032	1.5625 BTC	0.78125 BTC	112.5
Last Halving	~2140	1 Satoshi	0 (no Reward)	0

As of April 2026, we are in the fourth halving cycle. Miners receive 3.125 BTC per block. Approximately 450 new Bitcoins are created per day — this is 0.0021% of the maximum supply of 21 million coins.

Why does the Halving exist?

Satoshi Nakamoto built the Halving into the Bitcoin protocol for two reasons:

1. Controlled inflation. Without halving, the 21 million Bitcoins would be completely mined in about 8 years. With halving, the distribution is logarithmically slowed down — by 2026, 19.6 of 21 million Bitcoins will already have been mined, but the last 1.4 million will be distributed over 100+ years.
2. Long-term supply shock. Each halving halves the daily new supply of Bitcoin. If demand remains constant or increases, this should (according to simple economics) drive the price up. Historically, this has been the case with every halving so far — even if correlation is not causation.

What does the Halving mean for miners?

For miners, each halving is a cost shock. From one day to the next, their revenue halves — while electricity costs remain the same. The consequences:

• Inefficient miners are shut down. Older hardware (e.g., Antminer S9 with 100 J/TH) becomes uneconomical after the halving. Only the latest, most efficient ASICs (e.g., Antminer S21 with 17.5 J/TH) survive.
• The network hashrate temporarily decreases. In the 2-4 weeks after a halving, the global hashrate typically drops by 5-15% as unprofitable miners shut down.
• The difficulty adjusts. After 2016 blocks (approx. 2 weeks), the network lowers the difficulty, making the remaining miners profitable again.
• The break-even electricity price shifts. After the 2024 halving, the break-even for an Antminer S21 is around €0.07-0.08/kWh instead of the previous €0.14-0.16/kWh. For German household electricity prices, this is far below the pain threshold.

What does the Halving mean for hobby miners?

For Nerdminer-V2 owners and other mini-miners, practically nothing changes. The mining revenues of a Nerdminer V2 were statistically zero before the halving — and remain statistically zero afterwards. The only difference: if you actually find a block, you now get 3.125 BTC instead of 6.25 BTC. At the current price, that's still ~€190,000+ — more than enough to amortize the €50 acquisition cost.

The electricity costs of a Nerdminer V2 (€2.66 per year) are so low that no halving in the world makes them a dealbreaker. Hobby mining survives every halving without problems.

The Halving and the Bitcoin Price — a historical analysis

In each of the three previous halving cycles, the Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high in the 12-18 months after the halving:

• Halving 2012: Price at halving ~12 USD → All-time high ~1,000 USD (Nov 2013). Factor: ~83×
• Halving 2016: Price at halving ~650 USD → All-time high ~19,500 USD (Dec 2017). Factor: ~30×
• Halving 2020: Price at halving ~8,500 USD → All-time high ~69,000 USD (Nov 2021). Factor: ~8×
• Halving 2024: Price at halving ~63,000 USD → [current cycle, still open]

Classification: The historical correlation is striking, but the factor becomes smaller with each cycle. Whether the pattern repeats itself in 2024-2026 is open. Past performance does not guarantee future development. The halving is a supply shock — whether it is reflected in the price depends on demand, regulation, macroeconomics, and market sentiment.

What happens after the last Halving?

Around the year 2140, the last new Bitcoin will be mined. After that, miners will receive no more block rewards — only transaction fees. The central question: are transaction fees alone sufficient to finance a secure mining network?

The Bitcoin community is divided. Optimists argue that with growing usage, transaction fees per block will rise to a sufficient level. Skeptics fear that without a reward subsidy, the network hashrate could drop massively and jeopardize security.

Realistically: This is a problem for 2140 — i.e., in 114 years. Until then, 31 more halvings will take place, and the Bitcoin community has over 100 years to develop solutions.

Frequently Asked Questions about the Bitcoin Halving

When is the next Bitcoin Halving?

Expected in 2028 (Block 1,050,000). The exact date depends on the block production rate and will only be determined 1-2 months in advance.

Does the Bitcoin price always rise after the Halving?

Historically, yes — for all three previous halvings. But three data points are not a statistically confirmed pattern. There is no guarantee that the 2024 halving will have the same effect.

Should I buy my Nerdminer V2 before the Halving?

The halving does not change the Nerdminer V2 itself — it works exactly the same after the halving as before. The only difference: the potential block reward is smaller. Since you statistically won't find a block anyway, the purchase timing doesn't matter.

Which miners survive the Halving?

Only the most efficient ones. After the 2024 halving, miners with more than 30 J/TH efficiency become uneconomical at normal electricity prices. Only Antminer S19 XP and newer (under 22 J/TH) survive long-term. Mini-miners like the Nerdminer V2 are not affected because their electricity costs are negligible anyway.

What is the "Stock-to-Flow" thesis and does it have anything to do with the Halving?

Stock-to-Flow (S2F) is a valuation model by analyst PlanB that predicts the Bitcoin price based on its scarcity (supply divided by annual production). The halving halves the annual production and thus doubles the S2F ratio. The model explained the 2012-2020 halvings well but was criticized in 2022-2023 due to incorrect price predictions. It is an interesting framework, but not a crystal ball.

Further Reading

• Bitcoin Mining Beginner's Guide
• Mining Taxes in Germany
• Bitcoin Solo Mining Practical Guide
• Nerdminer V2 vs. Antminer S21 — after the Halving